Market conditions: Oakland, 94619 a modest decline

Oakland's 94619 zip code takes in a wide swath of the eastern portion of Oakland: from the modest bungalows of the Allendale, below MacArthur, starting around Brookdale Ave., extending eastward across 580 ,and up-hill through the Laurel, across highway 13, and then ending in the dizzying heights and prices of luxury hillside homes around Skyline Blvd.

The average sales price can jump or slide depending on the particular mix during a short period of time. On a monthly basis, for instance, a comparison between 2006 and 2007 closed sales for the area can show an upward spike 24% in March or a plummeting -22% slide the following month.

We get a more temperate, and accurate, picture when we expand our view over the entire calendar year. Comparing 2006 with 2007 through July, the average listing price dropped by 1% for the year, but the average sold price dropped by 3%. That 2% gap seems to indicate that some of the sellers are just not getting the message.

Does this mean that buyers can low-ball anything by 3%? Not at all. There are still multiple offer and overbid situations in the area. A modest home in Oakland's Montclair district just closed for $91,000 over the asking price. Then should a buyer offer more than the asking price in a declining market? Not necessarily; it all depends on the particular property. Value is always the key concept. Price is an amalgam of free opinions: what the agent thinks, what the seller thinks, sometimes what the agent thinks will get the listing signed, and sometimes what the seller thinks is needed in order to "have room to come down". Value is established only when the buyer pays and the seller accepts. There is no substitute for a detailed and thoughtful comparative market analysis of your property. Would you like one for your property? Call or e-mail me and let's talk.

Coming soon: similar reports on other key East Bay areas like Oakland 94602, North Berkeley, El Cerrito, Richmond North & East, and Pinole.