Market conditions: Oakland, 94619 a modest decline

Oakland's 94619 zip code takes in a wide swath of the eastern portion of Oakland: from the modest bungalows of the Allendale, below MacArthur, starting around Brookdale Ave., extending eastward across 580 ,and up-hill through the Laurel, across highway 13, and then ending in the dizzying heights and prices of luxury hillside homes around Skyline Blvd.

The average sales price can jump or slide depending on the particular mix during a short period of time. On a monthly basis, for instance, a comparison between 2006 and 2007 closed sales for the area can show an upward spike 24% in March or a plummeting -22% slide the following month.

We get a more temperate, and accurate, picture when we expand our view over the entire calendar year. Comparing 2006 with 2007 through July, the average listing price dropped by 1% for the year, but the average sold price dropped by 3%. That 2% gap seems to indicate that some of the sellers are just not getting the message.

Does this mean that buyers can low-ball anything by 3%? Not at all. There are still multiple offer and overbid situations in the area. A modest home in Oakland's Montclair district just closed for $91,000 over the asking price. Then should a buyer offer more than the asking price in a declining market? Not necessarily; it all depends on the particular property. Value is always the key concept. Price is an amalgam of free opinions: what the agent thinks, what the seller thinks, sometimes what the agent thinks will get the listing signed, and sometimes what the seller thinks is needed in order to "have room to come down". Value is established only when the buyer pays and the seller accepts. There is no substitute for a detailed and thoughtful comparative market analysis of your property. Would you like one for your property? Call or e-mail me and let's talk.

Coming soon: similar reports on other key East Bay areas like Oakland 94602, North Berkeley, El Cerrito, Richmond North & East, and Pinole.

Average sales price comparison January 2006 vs. 2007 (94619)

Smaller samples create less reliable results, so let's look to the next group of 580/13 neighborhoods in zip code 94619. Average sales price for single family homes in Oakland’s 94619 zip code including parts of the following neighborhoods: Laurel, Redwood Heights, Maxwell Park, Leona Heights, and Allendale.

The most consistent result is the reduction in the number of closed transactions:24 in Jan. 2006, but only 14 in 2007. Average marketing time also reflects what we see in 940602: 28 days in 2006, but 53 days in Jan. 2007. Interestingly, however, the number of home sales as just reported nationally seems to be headed up.
Existing Home Sales Improve in January
Not all commentators agree that these figures represent a real improvement in the housing market.
This is an improvement?
In a reversal of the results we saw in 94602 the average sold price increased slightly in 2007. Closed prices, which slightly exceeded list prices in 2006, were slightly less than more than list prices in 2007. Click on the picture for a larger view of the report.
2006 Report

2007 Report

This information is based on reported sales in the local MLS database.
It is believed to be generally reliable, but there are no guarantees. Please contact me directly for a report on a more narrowly defined area or a specific evaluation of your home’s market value